DUBAI PX AED 2,015/SQFT ▲ +1.7% YoY ABU DHABI PX ▲ +17.8% YoY BRENT $105.33 ▲ +72.5% YoY DXY 102.3 GOLD (XAU) $4,100/OZ ▼ -2% BTC $83,400 UST 10Y 5.21% 3M EIBOR 4.44% CBUAE BASE 3.90% FED HIKE ODDS (28 OCT) ~32% DUBAI PX AED 2,015/SQFT ▲ +1.7% YoY ABU DHABI PX ▲ +17.8% YoY BRENT $105.33 ▲ +72.5% YoY DXY 102.3 GOLD (XAU) $4,100/OZ ▼ -2% BTC $83,400 UST 10Y 5.21% 3M EIBOR 4.44% CBUAE BASE 3.90% FED HIKE ODDS (28 OCT) ~32%
Live — Dubai & Abu Dhabi

UAE property intelligence,
compiled daily.

SQFTea steeps the Dubai and Abu Dhabi residential market down to what matters — pricing, yields, mortgage rates, bond markets and global capital flows, brought together every morning in one report: The Daily Steep.

View today's data Get The Daily Steep
Dubai Price Index
AED 2,015/sqft
▲ +1.7% YoY
Abu Dhabi Price Index
+17.8%
YoY, Q2-26
Brent Crude
$105.33
▲ +72.5% YoY
Dollar Index
102.3
Fed odds ~32%
Gold (XAU)
$4,100/oz
▼ -2% (14 Oct)
Bitcoin
$83,400
range-bound
I.

Market Pulse

Dubai & Abu Dhabi pricing — covering the prior 24 hours

Dubai prices edge up on Bayut, but rents turn sharply negative

Bayut's September index has Dubai sale prices up 1.72% YoY to AED 2,015/sqft, while ValuStrat's August index still shows -3.1% (apartments -5.3%, villas -1.7%). Apartment rents fell 7.84% YoY to AED 118/sqft. Abu Dhabi keeps compounding at +17.8%.

Sources: Bayut, ValuStrat/Reidin, Khaleej Times

Hot CPI revives Fed hike risk for 28 October

September US CPI at 3.7% lifted CME hike odds for 28 Oct from ~22% to ~50% intraday, before fading to roughly a third by the close; a December hike is priced near 90%. The CBUAE base rate sits at 3.90% after its September hike, and it has mirrored Fed moves same-day.

Sources: CME FedWatch via FinanceFeeds/FXStreet, Gulf News
Read-throughProvider methodologies are producing opposite signals on Dubai sale prices this cycle, and the rental reversal is the sharper move. Abu Dhabi remains the standout on every measure.
Price & Rental Metrics — by Emirate
MarketPrice YoYRent YoYGross Yield
Dubai (all)+1.7%-7.8%‡~6.3–6.8%
Abu Dhabi (all)+17.8%+4.7%n/a†
Ras Al Khaimahn/an/an/a
Sharjahn/an/an/a
Ajmann/an/an/a
† Different providers/methodologies — see full report. Sources: Bayut (Sep-26), ValuStrat/Reidin (Aug-26, Q2-26), Khaleej Times.
II.

Buyer Outlook

Where the value is today — best entry points & negotiating leverage
Best Entry-Point Yields — Dubai & Abu Dhabi
Discovery Gardens
9.1%
Al Reef (AD)
8.9%
Dubai Silicon Oasis
8.7%
International City
8.6%
JVC / Dubai Land
8.0%
Masdar City (AD)
7.6%
Caution Zone — Manage Expectations
AreaYoY PriceSignal
JBR (apartments)-16.9%Steepest decline
Town Square-9.7%Decline
Palm Jumeirah (apts)-8.6%Decline
JVC / JVTn/aOversupply risk
Arjan / Silicon Oasisn/aOversupply risk
Buyer takeawayFunding costs are not falling: 3M EIBOR is 4.44% and another Fed hike is priced for December. The leverage is in price and incentives, with 63% of buyers expecting further falls, concentrated in higher-supply Dubai districts rather than Abu Dhabi.
III.

Seller Outlook

Where demand is strongest today — pricing power by community
Seller Heat Map — Strongest Pricing Power
AreaSegmentYoY
Al Reef (AD)Apartments+41.6%
Al Reef (AD)Villas+27.9%
Al Muneera Island (AD)Apartments+24.7%
Al Reem Island (AD)Apartments+22.0%
Saadiyat Island (AD)Villas+12.0%
Dubai Silicon OasisApartments+4.3%
Areas Needing a Realistic Price
AreaSignal
JBR (apartments)-16.9% YoY
Town Square-9.7% YoY
Palm Jumeirah (apts)-8.6% YoY
Off-plan projects44 of 717 cutting 5%+
Seller takeawayAbout one in ten Dubai sellers cut asking prices after the conflict began (a spring-era read); only ~6% of tracked off-plan projects have made hard cuts. Price against recent comparable sales, not list-price aspirations.
IV.

Capital Flows & Global Watch

Where the world's capital is landing — nationality flows & volatility tracking
UAE Millionaire Arrivals, 2025
9,800
▲ +98% YoY — #1 global
AD Foreign Investment, H1 26
AED 13.8bn
▲ +309% YoY
Dubai Transactions, Q1 26
AED 252bn
▲ +31% YoY — record
Who's Buying — Dubai Buyer Share by Nationality
India: 20.6% United Kingdom: 13.3% Egypt: 12.6% USA: 9.0% Pakistan: 6.9% Saudi Arabia: 5.7% Australia: 5.7% Other: 26.2% India 20.6% · #1 BUYER
India20.6%
United Kingdom13.3%
Egypt12.6%
USA9.0%
Pakistan6.9%
Saudi Arabia5.7%
Australia5.7%
Other26.2%
Harbor Real Estate/DXBinteract transaction data, H1-26. The DLD publishes no official nationality breakdown; rankings below #1 vary by source. Sources: Khaleej Times, Harbor Real Estate/DXBinteract.

Gulf war-risk premium hasn't broken the safe-haven bid

Houthi-claimed strikes on Saudi Aramco sites (3 and 5 Oct) keep Brent near $105 and UAE Murban toward $110. Yet Dubai's Q1-26 transactions hit a record AED252bn, up 31% YoY, with foreign investment alone at AED148.35bn.

Sources: Trading Economics, Dubai Land Department

Each shock has pushed a different buyer into Dubai

Russian/CIS capital after 2022, Pakistani buyers on rupee pressure, Egyptian and Turkish buyers hedging weak currencies. The pattern is directional, not quantified in dollars, and drivers are structural: the USD peg, freehold ownership, zero income tax and the Golden Visa.

Sources: Khaleej Times, Harbor Real Estate/DXBinteract
V.

Financing & Bond Markets

What UAE banks are offering, and what's pricing it
Bond Market Heat
US 10-Year Treasury
5.21%
UAE Treasury Sukuk
4.49%
UAE Treasury Bond
4.48%
3-Month EIBOR
4.44%
CBUAE Base Rate
3.90%
Why it mattersThe ~130bp gap between the US 10-year and the CBUAE base rate is historically wide, driven by US term premium and inflation pricing rather than UAE credit risk. 3M EIBOR eased to 4.22% in late September, then snapped back to 4.44% on 13 Oct — not a one-way path.
Financing Routes — Beyond the Standard Mortgage
RouteTypical Cost
Owner-occupier mortgage3.75–4.49%
Investment / buy-to-let~3.75–3.99%
Non-resident mortgage~4.85%+ (to 6.2%)
Islamic finance (Ijara)3.90–3.99%
Off-plan developer planInterest-free*
Bridge financingPriced monthly
*Embedded in list price, not charged as explicit interest. Full 13-lender rate table in the daily PDF.