SQFTea — The Daily Steep

DUBAI PX AED 1,939/SQFT ▲ +1.8% YoY ABU DHABI PX ▲ +17.8% YoY BRENT $95.52 ▼ -0.1% DXY 99.49 GOLD (XAU) $4,403/OZ ▲ +0.35% BTC $77,008 ▼ -0.2% UST 10Y 4.81% 3M EIBOR 3.84% CBUAE BASE 3.65% FED HIKE ODDS (16 SEP) ~66% DUBAI PX AED 1,939/SQFT ▲ +1.8% YoY ABU DHABI PX ▲ +17.8% YoY BRENT $95.52 ▼ -0.1% DXY 99.49 GOLD (XAU) $4,403/OZ ▲ +0.35% BTC $77,008 ▼ -0.2% UST 10Y 4.81% 3M EIBOR 3.84% CBUAE BASE 3.65% FED HIKE ODDS (16 SEP) ~66%

Market Pulse

Dubai & Abu Dhabi pricing — covering the prior 24 hours

Abu Dhabi's property boom keeps compounding

H1 2026 transactions hit AED117bn, more than double a year ago, with residential sales up 178% to AED70.4bn. Off-plan was 89% of residential sales value and foreign investment jumped 309% to AED13.8bn.

Sources: AGBI, The National

Fed hike odds hold near 66% for 16 September

CME FedWatch still prices a 66% probability of a 25bp hike, driven by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish tone. Because the dirham is pegged to the dollar, the CBUAE has mirrored almost every Fed move within hours all cycle.

Sources: Forbes, Trading Economics

Read-throughAbu Dhabi's transaction data is the standout number this edition. Dubai's picture is more mixed — developer capital keeps expanding outward even as the secondary market absorbs real price cuts in specific pockets.

Price & Rental Metrics — by Emirate

Market	Price YoY	Rent YoY	Gross Yield
Dubai (all)	+6.7%	n/a†	6.58%
Abu Dhabi (all)	+17.8%	+21.97%	n/a†
Ras Al Khaimah	-3.1%	n/a	n/a
Sharjah	n/a	n/a	n/a
Ajman	n/a	n/a	n/a

† Different providers/methodologies — see full report. Sources: Bayut, Worldwise, The National, AGBI.

II.

Buyer Outlook

Where the value is today — best entry points & negotiating leverage

Best Entry-Point Yields — Dubai

International City

9.1%

Discovery Gardens

8.3%

Jumeirah Village Circle

7.9%

Dubai Sports City

7.6%

Al Furjan

7.2%

DAMAC Hills 2

7.0%

Caution Zone — Manage Expectations

Area	YoY Price	Supply
Jumeirah Village Circle	-2.1%	Heavy
International City	-1.4%	Moderate
Remraam	-1.0%	Heavy
Dubai Sports City	-0.8%	Moderate
Outer Dubailand	-0.5%	Heavy

Buyer takeawayFinancing costs aren't going to get materially cheaper near-term, so the leverage to chase is in the property price itself — concentrated in Dubai's higher-supply mid-market pockets, not Abu Dhabi.

III.

Seller Outlook

Where demand is strongest today — pricing power by community

Seller Heat Map — Strongest Pricing Power

Area	Segment	YoY
Al Jubail Island (AD)	Villas	+40%
Al Saadiyat Island (AD)	Apartments	+21%
Dubai South	Apartments	+22.8%
Dubai Hills Estate	Villas	+20.3%
DAMAC Hills	Villas	+19.1%
Palm Jumeirah	Villas & apts	+18.5%

Areas Needing a Realistic Price

Area	Signal
Downtown / Burj Khalifa	-19% YoY
La Mer (villa)	-23% off ask
Arjan / Majan corridor	~30% vacancy
Business Bay (mid-market)	8,200+ units due

Seller takeawayRoughly one in ten Dubai sellers citywide has already cut asking price this year — price against recent comparable sales, not list-price aspirations.

IV.

Capital Flows & Global Watch

Where the world's capital is landing — nationality flows & volatility tracking

UAE Millionaire Arrivals, 2025

9,800

▲ +98% YoY — #1 global

AD Foreign Investment, H1 26

AED 13.8bn

▲ +309% YoY

Off-Plan Share of Deals

70–77%

2025 full year

Who's Buying — Dubai Buyer Share by Nationality

India21%

United Kingdom15%

China14%

Egypt12%

Saudi Arabia11%

Pakistan9%

Russia9%

Other9%

Directional consensus, not a single official figure. Sources: Anarock/Khaleej Times, DLD via TopLuxuryProperty & AIM Properties, Veersant, Harbor Real Estate/DXBinteract.

Britain's tax exodus is now Dubai's single biggest buyer story

A record 16,500 UK millionaires left Britain in 2025. The UAE absorbed 9,800 of the world's relocating millionaires — nearly double 2024, the #1 global destination. British nationals briefly overtook India as Dubai's top buying nationality in Mar-Apr 2026.

Sources: The National, Betterhomes

Not every crisis sends buyers to Dubai

Pakistan was Dubai's #2 buyer nationality in 2023; by 2025 it had slipped to #4 on fears regional escalation could hit prices. Egypt moved the other way — EGP devaluation pushed Egyptian buyers to ~12.6% of Dubai purchases in H1 2026.

Sources: Dawn, Harbor Real Estate/DXBinteract

Financing & Bond Markets

What UAE banks are offering, and what's pricing it

Bond Market Heat

US 10-Year Treasury

4.81%

UAE Treasury Sukuk

4.49%

UAE Treasury Bond

4.48%

3-Month EIBOR

3.84%

CBUAE Base Rate

3.65%

Why it mattersThe UAE Treasury Bond's spread over comparable US Treasuries tightened to just +4bps in the July auction — one of the tightest on record.

Financing Routes — Beyond the Standard Mortgage

Route	Typical Cost
Owner-occupier mortgage	3.75–4.19%
Investment / buy-to-let	~4–5%
Non-resident mortgage	5–6.5%
Islamic finance (Ijara)	3.75–3.99%
Off-plan developer plan	Interest-free*
Bridge financing	2.7–25% p.a.

*Embedded in list price, not charged as explicit interest. Full 13-lender rate table in the daily PDF.